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Kyle BonaguraCloseKyle BonaguraESPN Staff WriterCovers college football.Joined ESPN in 2014.Attended Washington State University.Mark SchlabachCloseMark SchlabachESPN Senior WriterSenior college football writer
Author of seven books on college football
Graduate of the University of GeorgiaSep 28, 2025, 12:45 PM ETWeek 5 of the college football season featured a series of heavyweight battles, headlined by Oregon beating Penn State in double overtime, Alabama posting a huge road win at Georgia, and Ole Miss knocking off LSU.But there were surprises and close calls up and down the scoreboard, resulting in the biggest shakeup yet in the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures.As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.We’re here for all of it.ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.Jump to a section:Playoff picks | QuarterfinalsSemis, title game | Bowl seasonCollege Football PlayoffFirst-round games (at campus sites)Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20Times and networks TBD.Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 OklahomaSchlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Ole MissBonagura: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Penn StateSchlabach: No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Texas TechBonagura: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Texas TechSchlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 OklahomaBonagura: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 IndianaSchlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 IndianaFirst-round breakdownBonagura: For the last few weeks, the ACC had quietly been positioning itself for a shot at two playoff bids and maybe — gasp! — even three with Miami, Florida State and Georgia Tech all rounding into impressive form. For all three to get in, it would have taken an unlikely set of circumstances, and now it seems like that scenario is off the table.Florida State’s loss to Virginia was a momentum killer and Georgia Tech squeaked by with an uninspiring performance against Wake Forest. The knee-jerk reaction from those results is to conclude neither of those teams will do enough for an at-large bid and that the ACC is likely a one-bid league (while also considering Louisville is still undefeated).All of ESPN. All in one place.Watch college football and much more in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Stream the biggest games
Schlabach: It was another crazy weekend in college football, as three of the top five teams in the AP poll went down: No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 LSU and No. 5 Georgia. No. 8 Florida State also lost 46-38 in two overtimes at Virginia on Friday night. I think it was a preview as to what’s to come over the final nine weeks of the regular season. There’s so much more parity in the Power 4 conferences, especially in the SEC, which figures to have contenders knocking each other off every Saturday. The days of a dominant champion seem to be over, thanks to the transfer portal and NIL.Oregon moved up three spots in my seedings after its 30-24 victory in two overtimes at Penn State, which is the best win of the season so far. Ohio State and Miami remained in my top four, while I wasn’t quite sure what to do with the fourth spot. I went with Texas A&M, while also seriously considering Ole Miss and Texas Tech.Alabama is back in my top 12 after it ended Georgia’s 33-game home winning streak with a 24-21 win at Sanford Stadium. Kirby Smart has won two national titles at his alma mater, but he can’t figure out how to beat the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs and Nittany Lions remain in my top 12 for now.CFP quarterfinalsWednesday, Dec. 31CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicAT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 OregonSchlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 OregonThursday, Jan. 1CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange BowlHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 MiamiSchlabach: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 MiamiCFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by PrudentialRose Bowl (Pasadena, California)4 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio StateCFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Ole MissSchlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Texas A&MQuarterfinals breakdownBonagura: Remember when Alabama was dead and buried a couple of weeks ago? Well, after the Tide’s win against Georgia, ESPN’s Football Power Index projects that only Ole Miss will finish with a better record from the SEC than Bama and that no team in the conference has a better chance to win out (albeit it’s a slight 7.6% chance).Ole Miss was the big mover this week, jumping to the front of the SEC with a key win against LSU — and the Rebels have just two ranked opponents left on their schedule (Georgia and Oklahoma). With that being the case, Ole Miss feels like the safest pick from the SEC to reach the playoff.Kewan Lacy and Ole Miss stated their case to be included in the playoff field with a big win over LSU. Andy Altenburger/Icon SportswireSchlabach: My bracket would produce some compelling storylines in the quarterfinals, especially in the Cotton Bowl Classic, where Smart would meet his former defensive coordinator Dan Lanning. Miami and Texas Tech have relied heavily on the transfer portal in building their rosters, and the Hurricanes would have an advantage playing the Red Raiders at home.An Alabama-Ohio State contest in the Rose Bowl would be one of the better CFP games, and an all-SEC affair in New Orleans would probably make the Sugar Bowl organizers pretty happy.CFP semifinals, national championship gameThursday, Jan. 8CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta BowlState Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 OregonFriday, Jan. 9CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 OregonSchlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio StateMonday, Jan. 19CFP National ChampionshipHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)7:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio StateNational championship breakdownBonagura: The way I see it, Oregon’s win at Penn State solidified the Ducks as a top-two team, alongside Ohio State — and they get a bye week to prepare for another massive game Oct. 11 against Indiana. From there, Oregon has a manageable schedule with no teams that are currently ranked the rest of the way.Ohio State has allowed a total of 22 points in four games and appears to be on a collision course with Oregon in the Big Ten title game, which has the potential to be a national title game preview.Schlabach: I think you could argue that the Ducks are the No. 1 team in the FBS right now. Former UCLA transfer Dante Moore is playing like the best quarterback in the country, and the Oregon defense did a great job containing Penn State’s running game, while giving quarterback Drew Allar tight windows to throw. I’ve got the Ducks getting past Miami in the Fiesta Bowl.Lane Kiffin has done an unbelievable job building Ole Miss into an SEC title contender again, and he has one of the best stories in the sport in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. He helped Ferris State in Michigan win two NCAA Division II national championships, and he’s lighting it up in the SEC. He threw for 314 yards and ran for 71 in the Rebels’ 24-19 upset of LSU. Meanwhile, the Ole Miss defense held the Tigers to 59 rushing yards and made things difficult for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.Ole Miss still plays at Georgia, Oklahoma and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, so it’s going to be a tough road the rest of the way.Complete bowl season scheduleSaturday, Dec. 13Cricket Celebration BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)Noon, ABCBonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina CentralSchlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina CentralLA BowlSoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Arizona vs. UNLVSchlabach: Washington vs. UNLVTuesday, Dec. 16IS4S Salute to Veterans BowlCramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Navy vs. Texas StateSchlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal CarolinaWednesday, Dec. 17StaffDNA Cure BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)5 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kennesaw State vs. Southern MissSchlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy68 Ventures BowlHancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)8:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Troy vs. Central MichiganSchlabach: Old Dominion vs. BuffaloFriday, Dec. 19Myrtle Beach BowlBrooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)Noon, ESPNBonagura: UTSA vs. Old DominionSchlabach: East Carolina vs. James MadisonUnion Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Mississippi State vs. ClemsonSchlabach: UNLV vs. PittsburghMonday, Dec. 22Famous Idaho Potato BowlAlbertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno StateSchlabach: Ohio vs. Utah StateTuesday, Dec. 23Editor’s Picks2 RelatedBoca Raton BowlFlagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UConn vs. Jacksonville StateSchlabach: Cincinnati vs. ToledoNew Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: James Madison vs. Louisiana TechSchlabach: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Louisiana TechScooter’s Coffee Frisco BowlFord Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Utah State vs. Kansas StateSchlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw StateWednesday, Dec. 24Sheraton Hawai’i BowlClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington StateSchlabach: Hawai’i vs. TulaneFriday, Dec. 26GameAbove Sports BowlFord Field (Detroit)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Michigan State vs. OhioSchlabach: Minnesota vs. Central MichiganRate BowlChase Field (Phoenix)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kansas vs. MinnesotaSchlabach: Baylor vs. Michigan StateSERVPRO First Responder BowlGerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Rice vs. Hawai’iSchlabach: SMU vs. Kansas StateSaturday, Dec. 27Go Bowling Military BowlNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)11 a.m., ESPNBonagura: SMU vs. North TexasSchlabach: Duke vs. NavyBad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlYankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)Noon, ABCBonagura: Louisville vs. IowaSchlabach: Louisville vs. MarylandWasabi Fenway BowlFenway Park (Boston)2:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: NC State vs. TulaneSchlabach: Syracuse vs. MemphisPop-Tarts BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3:30 p.m., ABCBonagura: Virginia vs. TCUSchlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa StateSnoop Dogg Arizona BowlArizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)4:30 p.m., CW NetworkBonagura: Bowling Green vs. San Diego StateSchlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno StateIsleta New Mexico BowlUniversity Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)5:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Boise State vs. CalSchlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas StateTaxSlayer Gator BowlEverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)7:30 p.m. ABCBonagura: Florida State vs. LSUSchlabach: Florida State vs. TennesseeKinder’s Texas BowlNRG Stadium (Houston)9:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Houston vs. VanderbiltSchlabach: TCU vs. MissouriMonday, Dec. 29JLab Birmingham BowlProtective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: South Carolina vs. East CarolinaSchlabach: Auburn vs. NC StateTuesday, Dec. 30Radiance Technologies Independence BowlIndependence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Baylor vs. Western KentuckySchlabach: Houston vs. Western KentuckyMusic City BowlNissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Maryland vs. MissouriSchlabach: Illinois vs. Mississippi StateValero Alamo BowlAlamodome (San Antonio)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: BYU vs. USCSchlabach: Utah vs. USCWednesday, Dec. 31ReliaQuest BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Nebraska vs. TexasSchlabach: Iowa vs. LSUTony the Tiger Sun BowlSun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)2 p.m., CBSBonagura: Duke vs. Arizona StateSchlabach: Clemson vs. ArizonaCheez-It Citrus BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3 p.m., ABCBonagura: Michigan vs. Texas A&MSchlabach: Michigan vs. TexasSRS Distribution Las Vegas BowlAllegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Illinois vs. UtahSchlabach: Nebraska vs. CalFriday, Jan. 2Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlAmon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UCF vs. South FloridaSchlabach: Kansas vs. UTSAAutoZone Liberty BowlSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Cincinnati vs. AuburnSchlabach: BYU vs. South CarolinaDuke’s Mayo BowlBank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Georgia Tech vs. TennesseeSchlabach: Virginia vs. VanderbiltHoliday BowlSnapdragon Stadium (San Diego)8 p.m., FoxBonagura: Notre Dame vs. WashingtonSchlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State
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